
![]() |
| (File Photo) |
BEIJING, May 15 -- China's infrastructure spending plan is not comparable to the 2008 stimulus, a J.P.Morgan economist claims.
The Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission has announced that 4.7 trillion yuan (720 billion U.S.dollars) will be spent on infrastructure from 2016-2018, covering 303 projects.
The decision has been misinterpreted as another large stimulus similar to that which followed the global financial crisis, but this is not the case, according to a research note by Zhu Haibin, J.P.Morgan China Chief Economist.
Zhu expects the projects to include some which are already underway and the spending is in line with existing policy rather than an additional amount.
The 13th Five-Year-Plan (FYP) contains slightly lower targets for railway and highway spending, but higher targets in city rail and airports compared to the previous FYP. Spending is still critical if policy targets are to be met, Zhu said.
With manufacturing investment is continuing to fall as capacity is reduced and real estate inventories are still high, infrastructure has become the focus of policy. It is worth noting that the concept of infrastructure has expanded in recent years to cover new areas such as city rail, pipelines, water conservancy, utilities and the environment, he said.
Furthermore, 4.7 trillion yuan today is not comparable to 4 trillion in 2008, he said. The amount today accounts for 6.9 percent of 2015 GDPor 8.5 percent of fixed investment and will be spread over three years. In 2008, the amount represented 14.9 percent of 2007 GDP and 33.8 percent of fixed investment. Total spending on infrastructure was only 2.3 trillion yuan in 2007 and is now over 11 trillion yuan.
In addition, 4 trillion is an inaccurate estimate of the 2008-09 stimulus with the actual amount much bigger, as reflected in credit growth and expansion of local government debt, Zhu added.
French girl ties the knot with Chinese boy
Beijing Style: ready for bare legs
Century-old station sees railyway evolution
Enthusiasts perform Kung Fu at Wudang Mountain
Stunning photos of China's fighter jets in drill
Monk's mummified body to be made into a gold Buddha statue
Former Chinese solider of the French Foreign Legion seeks wife online
Asia's longest and highest suspension bridge to open to traffic
China's first interactive robot looks like a beauty
Top 20 hottest women in the world in 2014
Top 10 hardest languages to learn
10 Chinese female stars with most beautiful faces
China’s Top 10 Unique Bridges, Highways and Roads
Rousseff’s suspension won’t cure ailing Brazil
Reforms, consumption set to boost growth
As police crack down again on sex work, some say legalization is solution
China recognizes ‘good netizens’ who spread ‘positive energy’ Day|Week