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This year, fluctuations on the renminbi exchange rate have changed people's impression that the currency can only appreciate. At the recent Shanghai Forum, experts expressed their views on the trend of the renminbi exchange rate and gave their suggestions on monetary policies.

Is RMB over-valued?

According to Ju Jiandong, director of National Center for Economics Research at Tsinghua University, currently the renminbi is over-valued, so it should not appreciate but depreciate substantially, and if the renminbi continues to appreciate, there is the risk of financial difficulties. He pointed out that once the capital market opens, the renminbi might depreciate sharply. Since the dollar is safer than the renminbi in the current capital market, people will be more inclined to hold dollars. If the capital market opens, this is likely to cause a sharp depreciation of the renminbi. So before the capital market opens, the exchange rate should return to normal. The experiences of India and other economies also confirm that once GDP growth slows down from 10% to 7%, the domestic currency will consequently depreciate.

Opening the capital flow will enable a two-way floating exchange rate

However, most experts believe that the renminbi will appreciate in the long run. According to Liu Ligang, chief economist of Australia & New Zealand Banking China, in the first quarter, the PBoC forced the renminbi to depreciate, and this hit the arbitragers heavily. PBoC released a signal: in future the renminbi exchange rate may fluctuate, and not always appreciate. He also believed that the influence of the PBoC was temporary; it could not manipulate the market in the long term. Most institutions still believe that the renminbi will appreciate towards the end of this year. The two-way floating of the renminbi exchange rate can only be realized when the capital outflow is liberalized.

Expanding the fluctuation range may restrain arbitrage

Chief economist of Industrial Bank Lu Zhengwei believes that the real effective renminbi exchange rate is far more influential to Chinese economy than we think. Currently, the share of secondary industry is clearing dropping, and the asset-liability ratio of manufacturing industry is rising. This industry hollowing is caused by the over-valuation of the real effective renminbi exchange rate. Lu Zhengwei suggests that the fluctuation range of the middle rate should be expanded, so the fluctuation ratio of the renminbi can be increased and arbitrage restrained.

The article is edited and translated from《人民幣匯率究竟何去何從》, source: Jiefang Daily, author: Yang Qun.