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The international oil price has been falling for over three months. Last week, it continued to drop sharply. Brent crude, the most active oil contract on the international market, has fallen by 20 percent since this summer. Even the supply interruptions caused by the warfare in the Middle East have not boosted the oil price.
"There is no sign of a rebound or a rise in the international oil price," said Dong Xiucheng, professor of the Business Administration School of China University of Petroleum.
It is generally agreed that besides the relatively strong U.S. dollar, the sluggish global economy is a key factor that is bringing down the oil price.
According to Dong Xiucheng, there is a positive correlation between international oil prices and global economic growth. The tough economic situation will lead to a series of problems, such as falling demand for oil, and the price falls consequently.
In the latest World Economic Report issued on October 7, 2014, the IMF turned down the global economic growth forecast of 2014 and 2015 for the third time this year. The report predicted global economic growth for 2014 and 2015 at 3.3 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent lower than the predictions made in July 2014.
He Maochun, director of Economic and Diplomatic Research Center of Tsinghua University, said: "The long-term economic slump in Europe is reducing the demand for oil, which has brought down the international oil price considerably."
The Federal Reserve reiterated in a statement issued on September 17 that after the conclusion of the treasury purchase program, the interest rate will be maintained in a low level for "a considerable period". Dong Xiucheng analyzed: "The Fed's postponing an interest rate rise has much to do with the slow recovery of the US economy."
He Maochun said:"Currently, US economic restructuring is not going well, the resource integration of the Eurozone still has a long way to go, Japan's economy faces many uncertainties, and the major emerging economies are experiencing a slowdown. Developing economies are highly dependent on developed and emerging economies, so they are incapable of creating new economic growth points."
To sum up, the international oil price is expected to remain low for a period of time, and the global economy will maintain low growth in the near future.
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