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It is now expected that the international oil price will tumble to below 50 US dollars. Some speculators remain bearish. Some suspect that the U.S. and Saudi Arabia are manipulating the falling oil price in order to destabilize Russia and Iran. But the fall in the past six months suggests that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lost control of the international oil market.

The US government is considering whether to lift its 40-year ban on crude oil exports. To secure its energy needs, the U.S. issued a ban on crude oil exports in the 1970s. The supply of shale oil is higher than demand in the US. The ban curtails America's need for oil from the international market. But with the U.S. looking for ways to put pressure on Russia over the Ukraine issue, the US is likely to lift the ban.

US oil output is soaring. It is predicted that it will reach 15 million barrels, higher than the 11 million barrels currently produced by Saudi Arabia. If the U.S. lifts the ban this year, more oil from North America will enter the international market. The demand for OPEC oil will fall. In the past, OPEC has been able to set international oil prices by raising or reducing oil output. Now, the US has the capacity to do so too.

This article was edited and translated from 《美國成了石油價格的制定人》, source: People's Daily Overseas Edition