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Vietnam has flexed its muscles by initiating commercial tours to the Nansha islands, initiating bidding rounds for oil blocks, and announced plans to build gas pipelines. In 2007 it went so far as to hold elections for National Assembly representatives for the Nansha islands.

Despite the tug of war, the situation was under control prior to 2009, with China seeking dialogue with its neighbours, and advocating joint development of the South China Sea. The US Asia-Pacific re-balancing strategy that President Barack Obama introduced in 2009, however, has escalated tension. Vietnam and the Philippines have felt empowered to act on their claims, believing they have US political and military cover.

In a very real sense the US has been the invisible hand behind the rising tension, conducting joint naval exercises with claimants, orchestrating confrontational incidents with Chinese naval vessels, and even giving partial recognition to the Philippines’ unilateral renaming of the South China Sea to the West Philippines Sea. The US has encouraged claimants to step up their efforts to take over the islands, engaging in joint exercises with the Philippines on “retaking islands” and “oil rig defence”.

It seems that US provocations have not reached their zenith, but are just getting started. The US keeps sending its ships to sail 12 nautical miles off the Nansha islands, and it has said it will send warships to the South China Sea twice a quarter.

Let’s face it, if China was sending its warships off the coast of Cuba twice a quarter, and mobilising the countries of the Caribbean to stake their claim to islands under US sovereignty, World War III would probably have started already.